BIG MARLEY’S UFC FIGHT NIGHT 135 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

Posted July 9, 2019

This weekend we have a 13-fight card then extended 3-week break. I’m excited to have UFC back and I am ready to win some cash on Saturday. The card will occur in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters creating their UFC debut so it’s always nice when you are already familiar with all the fighters on the card. Because this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings competitions are not the greatest, but there’s still a great deal of money to be obtained. I will be chasing the big $15k top prize at the $8 GPP as well as the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in money games, largely H2Hs, but I’ll be taking numerous shots at these huge prizes. Here are a few plays I enjoy this week as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600)
This is how I will be starting my cash lineup. I will put in Vick and Gaethje then figure out the rest from there. Any fight Gaethje is in is full of activity and his three UFC fights have all been Fight Of The Year type fights. Those types of fights are fantastic for DraftKings. Especially cash games since we can lock in a win and get all the points in the very best fight on the card. Usually 4 wins will find the job done in money games and we will get over 100 points with this fight. So, with that triumph locked in, we just need to find 3 others we feel great about.
GPP drama of the week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500)
It’s tough to want to pay $9.5k to get a guy like Barberena if you can just pay an additional $200 to find a -1000 favorite in Anders. But, I believe that’s what most people will do and that’s what makes Barberena a fantastic GPP play. I think we’ll get him in a somewhat lower possession due to his large salary, and he’s got a very good chance at obtaining a 1st round win. If he can find a 1st round KO then he will have 100 points so he will pay off that high salary. If you think Ellenberger is totally faded, then I believe that you should find some Barberena in your lineups. His ITD line is -170 and Ellenberger resembles he is a shell of his older self. I think Barberena does pick up an end in this fight so that I will throw him in some GPPs and expect he is beneath owned.
Underdog drama of the week — Andre Fili ($7,500)
This is just the easy worth play of this week. Currently, Fili is your betting popular at -115 over Michael Johnson at +105. But, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is only $7.5k. I really like taking that value when it’s available so that I think he is in play in all formats. He’ll be popular in tournaments with the value we’re becoming on himbut I am willing to consume that chalk and I do not want to get burned by entirely fading that value. I do think this is the toughest struggle on the card to phone, but when Fili keeps with his wrestling I presume he will have a fantastic shot at winning this battle. If the fight remains standing for 15-minutes, I’d prefer MJ but not by a lot. At $7.5k we do not need a huge score from Fili so any win will probably do the trick. I am not going to pass up on this value and I think he is the easy underdog of the week on DK.
Fade of the week — Drew Dober ($8,900)
This could just be my own personal prejudice but I will not have Drew Dober in any of my main ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my money lineup. Dober has just went for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he’s mainly just looking to strike. I believe that this is going to be a striking battle as well and I think that it will be closer than the chances signal. At $8.9k I think we’ll need a finish from him to wind up on the winning GPP lineup and that I really don’t see that occurring. If you do think Dober can find a KO, then you ought to be enjoying him. I will only be paying up elsewhere because I’m not sure he could get that complete and that I would not be amazed if he lost the struggle. I will say I never look to use Dober at DraftKings, so I could get burnt again here but I am going to stick with my Dober fade and he’ll be my fade of the week for UFC Lincoln.
If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with investigation on each struggle, my private approaches & recommendations, and my pick outlook for every fight then it is possible to find that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks